Commerce Media Is Overtaking TV Spend: Why Marketers Are Following the Money

ommerce media isn’t just a trend anymore. It’s already changing how brands spend their budgets, and in many cases, it’s taking over money that used to go to traditional TV.

To see why this is happening, we should look at how consumer behavior, AI, and first-party data are coming together right when people are ready to buy.

As Adweek recently put it:

“AI is reshaping how people discover products more quickly than it is reshaping where marketers spend their search budgets.”

That insight sums up what’s happening now. The way people discover products is changing quickly. Budgets are shifting too, but not at the same pace everywhere.

Why Commerce Media Makes So Much Sense to Marketers

Retail Media Networks (RMNs) are growing fast because they tackle several long-standing advertising problems all at once.

1. First-Party Shopper Data Is the NAs third-party cookies disappear and privacy rules get stricter, retailers now have the most valuable data in advertising: real purchase behavior.purchase behavior.

Examples:

• Amazon Ads lets brands target based on real shopping signals, not inferred intent.
• Walmart Connect enables CPG brands to reach shoppers who have already purchased (or abandoned) similar products.
• Instacart Ads reaches people who are actively adding groceries to their carts, which is probably the clearest digital sign of intent.

For marketers, this data is:

• Privacy-safe
• Purchase-based
• Continuously refreshed

It’s tough for other channels to match that.

2. Ads Closer to the Point of Commerce media puts ads right where people make buying decisions, not long before they shop.ot hours or days earlier.

Compare:

• A TV ad hoping viewers remember a brand later
• A sponsored product appearing at the exact moment someone searches “prBrands don’t have to guess anymore. They can catch demand as it happens.y’re intercepting demand.

This is why commerce media budgets are often pulled from TV, upper-funnel display, and even paid search.

3. Measurement Makes Finance Teams Happy (Even If It’s Not Perfect)

Commerce media is highly measurable:

• ROAS
• IncremBut that doesn’t mean it’s perfect.ibution

That doesn’t mean it’s flawless.

Offsite retail media (retailer data used across the open web and social platforms) is still the wild west:

• Inconsistent standards
• Limited transparency
• Questionable incrementality

BStill, compared to traditional TV, it feels more accountable, especially for CMOs who need to show quick results.

The Bigger Picture: What the Global Ad Market Is Telling Us

According to WPP Media’s latest outlook:

• The global ad market will reach $1.14 trillion, growing 8.8% year over year, despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
• Content-led advertising now accounts for 58% of global ad spend, making it the largest category.
• WPP renamed “search” as “intelligence,” which shows a strategic shift, even though spending on AI search is still fairly small.

This tells us something important:

TheThe industry is getting ready for AI’s impact before most of the money has shifted.

AI Is Changing Discovery Faster Than Budgets Can Move

Consumers are already changing how they discover products:

• TikTok as a search engine
• AI recommendations in marketplaces
• Conversational discovery via chatbots and assistants

ButBut marketers are still careful.hy?

• New discovery behaviors don’t yet have standardized buying models
• Measurement frameworks lag behind consumer behavior
• CFOs still want proven channels

So we’re in a transition period. AI is changing how people act first, and budgets are catching up later.

AI as “Creative DestructAI isn’t just making things more efficient. It’s also driving big changes in how the industry works.ng structural change.

Examples of creative destruction already happening:

• Generative AI replacing low-value content production
• AI-assisted media planning reducing manual optimization
• Retail media absorbing spend once reserved for TV and generic display

Brands that succeed won’t just use AI.They’ll rethink:

• How discovery happens
• Where influence truly occurs
• What metrics actually matter

What This Means for Brands and MarketThe rise of commerce media isn’t just hype. It’s about things lining up in the right way.

It aligns:

• Data with intent
• Media with purchase moments
• Measurement with business outcomes

Even though the long-term impact isn’t fully clear yet, the logic is strong enough that brands are making big bets.

The takeaway?

Pay attention to how people actually buy, not just how media categories are named.

That’s where the next wave of ad dollars will continue to flow.

Crafted sits at this intersection, connecting creator-driven storytelling with the measurement rigor that commerce media demands. Receipt-verified attribution bridges the gap between content that inspires and data that proves it worked. See how Crafted connects creator content to verified retail sales.

‍